🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436,000 on Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the month's conclusion rose in the hours before Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and surged in the first hours of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in betting activity just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also earned large payouts from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are growing concerned. Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week would prevent federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to current affairs. This sector faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."